The Tory leadership contest is now Penny Mordaunt’s to lose

Editorial: Like GP appointments, flights and computer chips, there is a desperate shortage of big ideas at the top of the Tory party

(Dave Brown)

Tory leadership campaigns usually turn up a few surprises, the occasional humiliation and numerous puzzles; sometimes all three. The 2022 contest is no exception.

The most pleasant surprise, at least for her, was the breakthrough for Penny Mordaunt. It is a slight puzzle because although she has always polled well among Tory members, figured well in the bookmakers’ slates and is popular among MPs, her second-place status – beating three cabinet ministers – was stronger than expected. The puzzle is only whether her impressive backing is down to Machiavellian “vote lending” by others, or extraordinarily skilful political and expectations management.

It seems most likely to be the latter because there is no obvious reason why the expected frontrunner, Rishi Sunak, or the others would boost Ms Mordaunt artificially. Indeed, there would be every reason to suppress her vote because she always polls so well among Tory activists.