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  Ashley Cowburn  
  Political Correspondent, The Independent  
 
 

Welcome to The Independent’s Brexit in Brief email. Keeping up with Brexit can be a full-time job – so we’ll summarise it all here for you.

 

The latest on Brexit

One week on from Theresa May’s emotional resignation speech in Downing Street, the race to succeed her has begun in earnest. There are now a dozen candidates vying to replace the prime minister – with varied visions on the future direction of Brexit.

Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, has faced criticism for apparent flip-flopping on a no-deal scenario while Esther McVey said the only way to deliver on Brexit was to “actively embrace leaving the EU” without a deal.

One small problem with that: the Confederation of British Industry warned a no-deal scenario would risk the Tories forfeiting their reputation as the party for business. Perhaps a bigger issue facing the candidates, however, is that they may not be in No 10 for long, judging by a new YouGov poll. The survey placed the Lib Dems in first place on 24 per cent, with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in second. Labour and the Conservatives both trailed on 19 per cent each.

Frontrunner Boris Johnson has his own problems too as he awaits trial for allegedly lying and misleading the British public about the consequences of Brexit.

Next week is also shaping up to be a significant one – and not just for Donald Trump’s state visit. On Tuesday, MPs will return from recess, then voters in Peterborough will head to the polls for the by-election on Thursday, with the Brexit Party tipped to gain its first MP. Ms May will formally resign as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday, staying on as PM until a successor is found.

 

What’s happening in Europe

In Brussels, a sense of Brexit fatigue is palpable – perhaps summed up by Luxembourg’s prime minister, Xavier Bettel, at this week’s EU summit in Brussels. Asked about the possibility of further negotiations, he replied: “No, no, no, no, no.”

His remarks have been echoed by senior figures involved in the Brexit talks, who have been on the airwaves reiterating that the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, as Tory contenders continue to insist it is a viable route.

Jean-Claude Juncker said he had been “crystal clear” that there will not be more talks, as the EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said “this treaty is the only option”. Mr Barnier also reiterated the EU position that he was happy to look at “alternative arrangements” for the Northern Ireland border immediately, citing “technology, drones, invisible controls” – but only after the controversial border backstop was put in place. “The backstop is insurance, in case we do not find this solution,” Mr Barnier told the New York Review of Books.

 

What does it mean for a Final Say?

It does seem many in the Westminster village are starting to believe a second referendum may now be more likely than a general election.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor (for the time being), signalled this week that he could even back a referendum, suggesting it might be the only way of breaking the Brexit impasse – but admitted it would be a “stain on parliament’s reputation”.

Jeremy Corbyn continues to face pressure to unequivocally back a second EU vote and he does appear to be treading – albeit at a glacial pace – towards this path with his warmer words on the prospect of a fresh referendum. Of course, the Labour leader still managed to disappoint supporters of a fresh vote on Thursday during a visit to Dublin saying it would be “some way off”, and that he still wanted to negotiate a better Brexit deal.

Of course, a major obstacle remains: as it stands there is no parliamentary majority for a second referendum.

 

Essential reading

The Independent’s Andrew Grice looks at what could be a spectacular political battle between Boris Johnson and Michael Gove in the Conservative leadership contest. MEP Neena Gill talks about the abuse she suffered from Brexit Party activists, and Lizzy Buchan asks who could be the next leader of the Liberal Democrats. Over in The Spectator, James Forsyth looks at not whether the Tories can win the next election, but whether they can survive. And in the New Statesman, Stephen Bush says Rory Stewart’s opium usage exposes the madness of British drugs policy.